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| This report will very likely not be bullish on the US side of things.
We will probably see a 181 yield.
Why?
There have only been 2 times the past decade where May yield came in lower than the February yield.
Those two years were 2013 and 2022.
May 1st Planting Progress:
• 2013: 8% (Yield Down in May)
• 2019: 18% (Worst Delayed Planting)
• 2022: 14% (Yield Down in May)
• 2024: 27% (This Year)
As you can see, planting progress is far ahead of those years. Altough we are seeing slight delays, there is still not a major concern. And we all know the USDA does not jump the gun.
Soybeans will likely come in at 52 as well.
However, I do not think the market is going to care about these yield numbers. These are already baked in from the February Outlook.
Looking at ending stocks, 2024/25 stocks are expected to be up a lot higher than last year. But down from the February USDA Outlook.
The estimate range however is massive for ending stocks.
The corn estimates range from 2.0 to 2.5 billion. A 500 million gap. On soybeans its a 240 million gap between 310 million to 550 million. Wheat has a near 200 million one as well between 700 million and 880 million.
Extreme wide ranges. So these numbers could come in anywhere.
South America numbers continue to shrink.
They are expecting sizeable cuts to both Brazil corn and soybeans. While Argentina corn is expected to take over a -5% trim due to disease.
CONAB is out next Tuesday, their estimates are far smaller. With Brazil beans at 146.5 and corn at 111. A massive difference, will be interesting to see if the market respects their numbers.
Overall the US supply and demand numbers probably won’t be bullish. But the market will quickly move on if they are bearish.
This market is already anticipating these big stocks and yields. We have already traded these bearish numbers with the Outlook Forum etc.
Even if it's bearish, I see it as just a one day knee jerk reaction then we go right back to trading weather and the funds……
Read the rest of todays market update where go over the report and managing your risk going into it, price targets for grains & and more.
Read Here: https://txt.so/mIGvhc
Estimates Below*
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Fridays USDA will be bearish. But market is already expecting bearish.
